By BEDOUR ALAGRAA for the Toronto Globalist
Water is the most valuable resource on the planet, and is responsible for the metabolic functions that make life on our planet possible. In the Middle East, water supplies have reached a point of severe scarcity. According to 2005 World Bank figures, the average per capita water availability in the region is approximately 1200 cubic meters per year; the world average is close to 7000. The Institute for Advanced Strategic & Political Studies (IASPS) has reported that water levels in the Middle East have reached an all-time low with levels adding up to only 1/3 of Asian supplies and an abysmal 15% of African supplies.
Many blame this sharp increase in water scarcity on several factors. First is the drastic increase in urbanization and population in the region. The dependency on oil is becoming exacerbated in countries such as Jordan where a population boom is forcing workers and their families to heavily depend on the country’s dwindling natural resources. Another contributing stress to the water supply in the region is climate change, which has been steadily drying up the region’s scarce water supplies. Finally, the Middle East uses irrigation to grow crops such as rice and cotton – the two most hydro-dependent domestic crops in the world. In order to compensate for these hydroelectric shortcomings, countries like Jordan and Israel have resorted to drilling water out of groundwater aquifers and mountain aquifers, both of which are non-renewable water sources. The combination of population, climate, and agricultural stresses on the region’s water supply aggravates the political situation in the region, and adds a layer to the already complicated geographic ambiguities in the Israel/Palestine region.
The result is a constant constitutional dispute over individual countries’ rights to the limited water supply between Jordan, Palestine, Israel, Syria, Turkey, and the occupied Palestinian region of the West Bank. The crisis has added tension to the already sensitive political situation in the Middle East, threatened previously established peace treaties, and decreased the likelihood of achieving long-lasting peace in the region. Even if current disputes in the region are resolved, the question of when this dispute over water will manifest itself in a regional war remains.
Turkey is considered to be the most economically and politically powerful country involved in this dispute. Turkey is home to both the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, and since the 1980s, relations between Turkey and neighbouring Syria have been intensified by water scarcity. The IASPS reported that in 1987, Turkey and Syria signed a water protocol – the Southeast Anatolia (GAP) Project – which promised to allow Syria to gain more access to the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Despite signing this protocol, Turkish efforts have increasingly marginalized Syria’s access to these bodies of water. For example, Turkey’s construction of the Ataturk dam has created a water reserve that diverts the flow of the Tigris River away from Syria and into Turkey’s proverbial backyard (IASPS). According to World Bank figures, this diversion effort can lead to a decrease in water supply for Syria and Iraq by 40% and 80% respectively.
Jordan’s position in the crisis is particularly vulnerable, as its population is expected to grow rapidly in tandem with increasing urbanization in the country. A 2005 World Bank report shows that this trend is expected to occur in the next 15 years; by 2025, the per capita water supply will fall from the current 200 cubic meters per person to only 91 cubic meters, putting Jordan in danger of having an absolute water shortage. Jordan is the only country with a guaranteed right to water supplies – the main body of water in contention is the Jordan River Basin. A peace treaty signed in 1994 by Jordan and Israel guaranteed Jordan its right to an additional 215 cubic meters of water annually through newly built dams, diversion structures, pipelines and desalination/purification plants.
At the moment, the Israeli government is mostly concerned with the political implications of this crisis. Since a water agreement has already been signed with Jordan, Israel’s main problem is the sensitive political and geographic situation that it shares with Palestine. Israel is concerned that the water crisis will spill over in to the existing conflict over the West Bank region, and that this conflict could be a serious blow to the already delicate ceasefire agreement signed in 2005. Having signed the Indus Water treaty, Israel believes that it is legally within its bounds to extract water from the Jordan River and Mountain Aquifers, in direct proportions with what it sees as increasing demand in its cities.
Palestinian officials believe that its long-standing conflict with Israel will indefinitely intensify; Israel uses approximately 80 percent of water contained in shared aquifers, in addition to water obtained from the illegally occupied West Bank region. Palestinian officials accuse the Israeli government of a gross misdistribution of water. They argue that water is being taken from villages and refugee camps in order to further satiate the greed and hegemony of Israel, which is effectively perpetuating the relationship of super and subordination between the two sparring states. Palestine believes that consuming water from illegally obtained territories (i.e. the West Bank region) is contrary to established international law and, thus, should be barred from treaties that allow Israel a disproportionate access to water.
The implications of this multilateral dispute are huge. Many see this conflict escalating into a full regional or even multiregional war. Israel’s Water Commissioner, As Meir Ben Meir, stated in a BBC interview that “At the moment, I project the scarcity of water within 5 years…I can promise that if there is not sufficient water in our region, if there is scarcity of water, if people remain thirsty for water, then we shall doubtless face war.” If not war, then this conflict will undoubtedly delay already postponed peace talks in the region. In addition, this conflict will see the rise of new superpowers such as Canada, Sudan, Turkey, Russia, and India; all of which are rich in fresh water supplies.
Several solutions have been presented in response to this grim geopolitical situation. The first step in any solution would be the ratification of a multilateral deal that would directly address the rights and/or constitutionality disputes when determining access to water in the region. Clear boundaries should be drawn as to how much water can be used and when it can be extracted according to each country’s population stresses and agricultural dependencies. These boundaries should be ratified and regulated by a neutral third party such as Oman, a fresh-water rich country with a Middle Eastern perspective on the issue. This would rid the world of at least one tension-causing problem, which in turn would free up valuable time to deal with other issues such as the occupation of West Bank, the conflict in Gaza, and the Hezbollah agenda in Lebanon.
The Gulf and interior states of the Middle East are surrounded by salt water. Desalination (the use of purified sea water as a last resort when the supply of natural fresh water runs out) is another solution to this problem. Unfortunately, desalination is costly – it requires the building and upkeep of desalination plants, hiring employees, engineers, and regulating waste minerals produced by desalination.
Despite these challenges, there is a way for the Middle East to have its water and drink it too. The price of desalination is steadily decreasing, and by the time local aquifers dry up (15 years), the price of desalination will be much more affordable. The Gulf States have more than enough money and clout to fund the building of desalination plants; poorer countries like Jordan can take loans from Gulf States and, seeing as many of these countries are made up of Muslim majorities, these loans will come at little or no interest as it would be contrary to Islamic doctrine to charge interest on loans. These countries would be able to pay these Gulf States back with the revenue created from the operation of the plants. As for disposing of waste minerals, this would put thousands of engineers and “green collar” workers to good use – the green movement is rapidly growing in the Middle East.
With a combination of science, common sense and, most importantly, humanity, the Middle East, will be able to avoid conflicts over water if action is taken immediately. Only then can we achieve the peace and prosperity that the Middle East so desperately craves.
